The path to leadership in a shifting global energy landscape

The central argument of Arabian Gambit is that GCC countries can benefit economically in significant ways as they shift from being “petro states” to becoming “green states.” 

They will be able to make this transition because the region is the world’s lowest-cost producer of renewable solar and wind energy, along with its role as the leading exporter of fossil fuels. This means that, at every point on the path from a hydrocarbon-based energy system to a largely decarbonised one, Saudi Arabia and its neighbours can configure their energy mix for the desired CO2 emissions level while avoiding the turmoil of supply shortages and price shocks. 

Upending conventional wisdom about how the transition to net-zero emissions could eclipse the prosperity and strategic power of GCC countries, Arabian Gambit argues that it will instead put the region in the driver’s seat of the high-priority efforts to address climate change.

The region has a long history of energy leadership. Now, more than ever, the authors say, it can assert that leadership, this time with a focus on sustainable and cleaner sources of energy.

Arabian Gambit identifies five priority areas in which the GCC countries will be able to make themselves key players in the ongoing energy transition. They are:

These five areas will require total cumulative investments of about $3tn over the next two decades, the authors estimate. Yet the payback will be rapid, especially once renewable energy production has scaled. Governments will need to emphasize “moonshot” execution and strong governance and should put in place an “Arabian Green Charter” – a roadmap articulating the ambition of the green transition for each country – the authors suggest.

The GCC countries are strategically positioned to play a crucial role in global supply chains as energy suppliers and hubs for trade, logistics and manufacturing. Their efforts to diversify their economies, develop infrastructure and invest in innovation are all geared towards adding value to their economies and solidifying their position in the global supply chain landscape. As they progress on transitioning their industrial sectors, they are also transforming their human capital. With parallel developments to shape institutions and leverage their innovation and technological focus, the GCC is well placed to lead the future Clean Energy Souk.