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Measurements of global uncertainty have reached new highs. Many are blaming the dramatic shift in US tariffs as the cause of this. However, trade disruption is just one of the global shifts that is impacting the world economy in 2025. PwC’s five Megatrends—climate change, technological disruption, demographic shifts, a fracturing world and social instability—explain current local and global shifts and why this is elevating uncertainty across the world.
For South African business leaders, the current pace of change in some of the Megatrends creates a cascading flow of uncertainty. How would these Megatrends impact, for example, South Africa’s exports? This is not a trivial question: the country is, after all, pursuing an export-oriented growth strategy to stimulate economic growth and job creation. And, according to our calculations, around 1.7m jobs in South Africa are directly created and/or supported by exports.
Policymakers globally are also grappling with how to respond to these global trends. To better understand what this could mean for South Africa, we created a simulation of possible policy responses to these global changes by the country’s ten largest export partners. Our calculations show that policy shifts could yield a potential extra boost in export revenues of R188bn towards 2030, compared to the baseline. In different countries, these shifts could include, for example, investments in technological development and the hydrogen economy which would, in turn, increase demand for South African exports of platinum group metals (PGMs).
Today’s c-suite faces the dual challenge of addressing immediate hurdles while preparing to leverage powerful, long-term shifts in the market. Some South African business leaders will look back at the next few years as a formative time when they learned to adapt and thrive by radically transforming how they create, deliver and capture value, both locally and abroad. Others will, in the absence of business model reinvention, see their companies fall behind rivals, destined to play a frustrating game of catch-up. The choice is obvious.
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Moving forward in these turbulent times will require going beyond the usual responses to disruption such as slashing costs or transforming operating models. Business model reinvention (BMR) involves rethinking the essential parts that drive a business—like the value it offers, how it makes a profit, its core capabilities, processes and resources. Action is the key here: South African export-oriented companies will have to reinvent their business model or risk falling behind competitors.
BMR is a complete reimagining of how a company creates, delivers and captures value. The approach is grouped into three themes:
- Business model innovation
- Operating model innovation
- Strengthen critical capabilities
In this edition:
Megatrends are driving a global geoeconomic reconfiguration and creating export opportunities
Business model reinvention is essential to transform how companies create and deliver value to the export market
The world is currently experiencing a global geoeconomic reconfiguration that is dramatically changing the rules of the game. For businesses to benefit from global policy shifts, they will have to go beyond the usual responses to disruption. Business Model Reinvention (BMR) is a complete reimagining of how a company creates, delivers and captures value.
Key content in this report includes:
- Accelerating Megatrends: Global uncertainty reaches new highs in a fracturing geopolitical world.
- Not just tariffs: Climate and tech policy shifts that SA’s major trading partners are making.
- Impact simulation: Opportunities that global shifts could present SA exporters towards 2030.
- Business model reinvention: Transforming how export-oriented businesses create and deliver value.
- How we can help with business model reinvention.
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Contact us
PwC Africa ESG Platform Leader, Strategy& and Chief Economist, Strategy& South Africa
Tel: +27 (0) 82 708 2330
