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PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026 assesses Nigeria’s economic environment as the country enters a period of improved macroeconomic stability. Following policy reforms in 2025, inflation has eased, foreign-exchange conditions have become more stable, and external buffers have strengthened. As Nigeria moves into 2026, the focus is on how this stability shapes growth outcomes, investment decisions, and business performance across sectors.
The report reviews Nigeria’s 2025 economic outcomes against expectations and sets out the key forces expected to shape economic performance in 2026. It provides a structured framework for understanding risks, opportunities, and strategic choices in an operating environment that is more stable and also shaped by domestic constraints and global developments.
Seven key issues shaping the economy in 2026
The Economic Outlook 2026 identifies seven key issues expected to shape Nigeria’s economic performance in the year ahead:
- Strengthening monetary policy effectiveness
- Addressing fiscal sustainability and executing reforms
- Global dynamics and geopolitics
- Domestic security and social stability pressures
- Uneven sectoral growth dynamics
- Consumer affordability constraints
- Stronger momentum in the emergence of the digital economy and artificial intelligence
Strengthening monetary policy effectiveness
Strengthening monetary policy effectiveness, as anchoring inflation expectations remains essential amid external shocks and price risks.
Addressing fiscal sustainability and executing reforms
Addressing fiscal sustainability and executing reforms, with elevated debt obligations and deeper revenue mobilisation shaping policy choices.
Global dynamics and geopolitics
Global dynamics and geopolitics, as shifting trade patterns, regional tensions, and policy realignments influence growth, capital flows, and energy markets.
Domestic security and social stability pressures
Domestic security and social stability pressures, with insecurity and land-use conflicts affecting national cohesion and economic activity.
Uneven sectoral growth dynamics
Uneven sectoral growth dynamics, reflecting structural bottlenecks and shifting demand across industries.
Consumer affordability constraints
Consumer affordability constraints, as spending recovery remains limited by weak real income growth.
Stronger momentum in the emergence of the digital economy and artificial intelligence
Stronger momentum in the emergence of the digital economy and artificial intelligence, shaped by regulatory clarity, adoption gaps, and infrastructure constraints.
Together, these issues frame how global and domestic forces interact to influence growth, inflation, financing conditions, and business confidence in 2026.
Economic outlook for 2026
Real GDP growth is projected to expand to about 4.3% in 2026, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in dominant services sectors. Inflation is expected to moderate gradually, reflecting the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary stance, rebasing effects, and improved foreign-exchange stability. The naira is projected to remain broadly stable, underpinned by ongoing FX reforms and improved portfolio inflows. With inflation easing, monetary policy may ease cautiously, while policy discipline remains critical.
Fiscal conditions continue to shape the outlook. Elevated debt-service obligations and low revenue-to-GDP ratios limit fiscal flexibility and influence domestic liquidity conditions. Growth is expected to remain uneven, with stronger momentum in services and capital-intensive sectors, while agriculture and manufacturing continue to face structural constraints.
Strategic imperatives for business leaders
Against this backdrop, the report outlines strategic imperatives for business leaders navigating 2026. These include making bold but selective investment bets in attractive sectors and geographies, scenario planning for macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, and reconfiguring business models and cost structures to strengthen resilience. The Outlook also highlights the importance of accelerating digital transformation and responsible AI adoption, staying proactive in regulatory engagement, and strengthening tax strategy and compliance as reforms move from design to execution.
For business leaders, the Economic Outlook 2026 provides a clear lens for aligning strategy, capital allocation, and risk management with Nigeria’s evolving economic conditions.
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