The recovery is broadening but remains selective. Nordic mid-market activity is proving more resilient than headline deal values suggest, while improving financing conditions are helping strong assets transact. Capital and risk appetite nevertheless remain differentiated by business quality, sector and deal size.
AI uncertainty is beginning to thaw. High-quality technology businesses are trading, while growing experience with AI diligence is helping buyers distinguish between AI beneficiaries, adaptable businesses and genuinely vulnerable models.
Geopolitical risk is becoming more assessable, not less important. The consequences of the conflict involving Iran remain uncertain, but the principal effects on energy, shipping, insurance and supply chains are better understood than at the outset.
The physical layer is regaining strategic value. Infrastructure, industrial and productled businesses—including software companies with a hardware or physical-systems component—are attracting greater interest as investors seek resilience and defensibility amid macroeconomic and AI uncertainty.
"The central message for the second half of 2026 is not that uncertainty has disappeared. It is that more of it can now be converted into diligence questions, scenarios and transaction terms. That is helping well-prepared, strategically relevant assets transact. "
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