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Since 2020, the powertrain portfolio has moved from technology openness towards a BEV-centric powertrain portfolio.
Customer perceived ranges in km
Charged range / 10 min
To meet differentiated customer needs, future BEV powertrains require tailor-made product platforms. The differentiation drivers are still range, power and charging speed. Battery and cell chemistry will be far from a commodity, but the key brand differentiator and competitive driver. Technological advancements in the eDrive system improve efficiency throughout the drive cycle and therefore reduce overall operating costs. Enhanced cooling allows brand differentiation in fast-charging solutions.
Battery costs are likely to remain main cost driver for future powertrains across all platforms. Especially cells comprise the majority of material costs.
Range will remain a key factor within platform specifications, and each will offer both standard and long ranges to meet differentiated flexibility needs.
Across the differentiated BEV platforms, customers have diverse buying criteria with regard to flexibility, dynamics, sustainability and operating costs. Diversified technological development in the ePowertrain of the future will probably enable OEMs to satisfy customer segments with diversified powertrains, enabling large-scale market diffusion.
Battery and cell chemistry are expected to be a key brand differentiator and competitive driver:
Vehicle range increase1
Charge speed increase1
ePowertrain cost reduction2
1 Exemplary for prismatic NMC; 2 Exemplary for prismatic LFP
By 2025, improved total cost of ownership (TCO) due to scale effects and convenient charging infrastructure are expected to lead to BEV diffusion. In 2030, further TCO improvements as a result of enhanced battery technologies and efficient charging infrastructure are likely to consolidate the position of BEVs as the standard choice.
By 2030, around 40% of light vehicles globally will be based on a BEV platform and a 70% BEV share is expected by 2040. In the US, the IRA will accelerate BEV adoption, while in China, lower EV costs in relation to ICE will be significant. From 2030 to 2040, global battery demand is expected to nearly double to up to 6.5 TWh.
Electrification is moving from premium to entry segments, driven by customer demand. In 2030, a significant price gap between premium and entry-level BEVs will probably remain, with the middle segment widely adopting electrification. However, limited differentiation in electrification rates is anticipated across car segments.
Jan-Hendrik Bomke, Dr. Oliver Stump-Blesinger, Dr. Philipp Jehnichen and Dr. Patrick Treichel also contributed to this report.