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Digital Auto Report 2022

Capturing value with new mobility business models

For car manufacturers, value creation in mobility is growing beyond the vehicle with components and connected services to mobility and transportation services on the one side and mobility infrastructure provisioning on the other side – for each direction a distinct view is needed to define a winning strategy.

  • Today‘s connected services improve vehicle experience along safety, convenience, entertainment and infrastructure. OEMs apply different bundling approaches with German players providing a large number of individual services at 19-880 EUR p.a., while new US/Chinese players offer fewer packs at higher prices
  • Capturing value with digital services remains challenging as other industry sectors (media, retail, etc.) fight for the same customer wallet. The total market in Europe, US and China is estimated at 66bn USD in 2035. Vehicle features on demand create additional service revenue opportunities – but partly at the cost of vehicle sales
  • Zooming into vehicle components, electric powertrains and batteries show substantial growth potential. In 2035, the market is expected at 238bn USD in Europe – vs. 128bn USD in the US and 314bn USD in China
  • In the context of automated driving, even the largest players are forming partnerships along the value chain. First regular robotaxi operations are expected in Europe early 2023, but scale-up will take another 5 years
  • With cost per robotaxi kilometer below 1 EUR by 2030, a tipping point with attractive consumer prices is reached in that year. As a result, robotaxi service revenues in large cities are expected to grow from 31bn EUR in 2030 to 400bn EUR in 2035. OEM revenues for selling robotaxis vehicles expected at one fourth of that market (103bn EUR)
  • In the third value pool centering around infrastructure, the EV charging market has substantial growth potential. In Europe alone, the market is expected to grow from 4.5bn EUR in 2021 to 75.5bn EUR in 2035.

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A market outlook of electric powertrain and battery revenue potential in billion USD

The electric powertrain and battery markets have the potential to grow strongly, especially in EU and China. In 2035, the market is expected at 238bn USD in Europe – vs. 128bn USD in the US and 314bn USD in China. 75-80% of those revenues can be attributed to battery cells and packs – clearly proving the strategic relevance for OEMs.

Europe
2021
42
2025
98
2030
167
2035
238
United States
2021
10
2025
22
2030
56
2035
128
China
2021
34
2025
105
2030
170
2035
314
Battery cells and packs
Rest of electric powertrain

Annual robotaxi vehicle sales in a large cities scenario in million units

2025
0
2030
0.1
2031
0.5
2032
1.0
2033
1.3
2034
1.9
2035
2.4
USA (and Canada)
China
Europe
Others

Based on 17 relevant use cases in large cities and respective demand, we estimate 2.4mn robotaxis to be sold p.a. by 2035. The costs per robotaxi and price-per-km will fall over the time as the cost of vehicles, autonomous driving technology, and related services will decline as well. We also assume that robotaxis will replace existing cabs in case the technology becomes more robust and the vehicles is able to operate in bad weather without any restrictions.

A market outlook of charging ecosystems in billion EUR in EU, U.S. and China

Europe
United States
China

One-off revenue
Hardware
BOP
Recurring revenue
Electricity
CPO
eMSP
CSO

By 2035, the market potential across the regions is ~161bn EUR with a move away from infrastructure build up to recurring sales. Depending on the starting position of an individual mobility stakeholder, different capabilities need to be upgraded. E.g. auto OEMs need to enhance their system integration capabilities towards software, and suppliers need to move from component supply to solution provisioning. Traditional transport operators and utilities can grow by turning their infrastructure and real estate into smart, bundled B2B service hot-spots, and traditional charge point operators as well as gas stations may utilize their existing hyperlocal footprint to offer broader mobility services.

Akshay Singh, Steven Jiang, Kentaro Abe and Milos Bartosek also contributed to this report.

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Jörg Krings

Jörg Krings

Partner, Strategy& Germany

Dr. Andreas Gissler

Dr. Andreas Gissler

Partner, Strategy& Germany

Jonas Seyfferth

Jonas Seyfferth

Director, Strategy& Germany

Dr. Jörn Neuhausen

Dr. Jörn Neuhausen

Director, Strategy& Germany

Hartmut Güthner

Hartmut Güthner

Director, Strategy& Germany

Thilo Bühnen

Thilo Bühnen

Director, Strategy& Switzerland

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