Capturing value with new mobility business models
For car manufacturers, value creation in mobility is growing beyond the vehicle with components and connected services to mobility and transportation services on the one side and mobility infrastructure provisioning on the other side – for each direction a distinct view is needed to define a winning strategy.
The electric powertrain and battery markets have the potential to grow strongly, especially in EU and China. In 2035, the market is expected at 238bn USD in Europe – vs. 128bn USD in the US and 314bn USD in China. 75-80% of those revenues can be attributed to battery cells and packs – clearly proving the strategic relevance for OEMs.
Based on 17 relevant use cases in large cities and respective demand, we estimate 2.4mn robotaxis to be sold p.a. by 2035. The costs per robotaxi and price-per-km will fall over the time as the cost of vehicles, autonomous driving technology, and related services will decline as well. We also assume that robotaxis will replace existing cabs in case the technology becomes more robust and the vehicles is able to operate in bad weather without any restrictions.
By 2035, the market potential across the regions is ~161bn EUR with a move away from infrastructure build up to recurring sales. Depending on the starting position of an individual mobility stakeholder, different capabilities need to be upgraded. E.g. auto OEMs need to enhance their system integration capabilities towards software, and suppliers need to move from component supply to solution provisioning. Traditional transport operators and utilities can grow by turning their infrastructure and real estate into smart, bundled B2B service hot-spots, and traditional charge point operators as well as gas stations may utilize their existing hyperlocal footprint to offer broader mobility services.
Akshay Singh, Steven Jiang, Kentaro Abe and Milos Bartosek also contributed to this report.