The population of Switzerland is on course to reach ten million people in perhaps as little as a decade1. The question of whether the country’s infrastructure and housing stock can support the increasing population has become part of the public debate. Given limited availability of space and natural resources, Switzerland also needs to address future food security and how to feed the country’s growing population in a sustainable and economically viable way.
Of course, Switzerland is not alone – the entire global food system is under pressure. It would take the resources of three planet Earths to feed the world by 2050 if consumption habits carry on unchanged and the global population continues to grow at the current rate. As a result, food security and sustainability has emerged as a key priority for governments around the world, and a significant transformation of the global food ecosystem is inevitable.
To date, Switzerland has succeeded in ensuring a supply of healthy and affordable food for its citizens, but there is potential to improve in comparison with fellow developed economies (see Exhibit 1). Switzerland scores highly in the Economist’s Global Food Security Index on availability. But there is work to do in other areas, particularly in terms of sustainability and adaption to climate change as well as affordability.
Exhibit 1: Strengths and challenges of the Swiss food ecosystem
Swiss demand for key food products increased by around 20 percent between the years 2000 and 2020. As demand is expected to continue growing at a similar pace, Swiss food producers and policymakers have important choices to make on how to keep providing the population with affordable high-quality food. Increasing production is at the heart of the challenge, as Switzerland seeks to maintain a certain degree of self-sufficiency whilst meeting ambitious targets to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change, and as more consumers seek out sustainable alternatives.
In this article, we will look at consumer choices and their impact on food demand, ways to increase output as well as the sustainability of domestic production and ways to make import supply chains more resilient to shocks and the impact of climate change. Finally, we will consider how food producers, retailers and policymakers can engage consumers to contribute their share to the sustainability transformation.
As Switzerland considers how to build a sustainable and secure food ecosystem for a growing population, the good news is that many Swiss consumers are already increasingly seeking out a healthy, sustainable diet. Strategy& carried out a survey among 200 consumers in August 20232, and while price remains the most important factor when it comes to purchasing decisions, 71 percent of respondents identified social and environmental sustainability among the top factors influencing their grocery purchases (see Exhibit 2).
Local production, minimal use of pesticides and a low carbon footprint were the most important sustainability considerations. Two-thirds of survey respondents are already somewhat or very familiar with the concept of sustainability, and many are actively seeking sustainable options.
Exhibit 2: Key drivers of purchasing decisions and shift in consumption patterns
These preferences are driving a shift in Swiss household eating patterns. 27 percent of respondents spent more money in 2023 on food compared to the previous year, and the survey reveals that households spent more on fresh, sustainably produced food as well as plant-based and organic or local produce. Only 14 percent decreased their spending, mostly driven by fewer delivery and restaurant visits, and buying less convenience food. Overall, around 40 percent indicated they would be willing to pay a premium of six percent or more for sustainable products. The willingness to pay more was highest among millennials – more than half of respondents in the age group said they would pay a “sustainability premium”.
Changing consumer preferences will shape future demand trends. Over the next decade, we expect food demand to grow roughly in line with population growth (see Exhibit 3), with shifts between individual categories. Fish and seafood, for example, will likely grow in popularity as more consumers choose these products as part of a healthy diet. Healthier eating choices are also expected to cause a drop in sugar consumption. Food producers’ initiatives to reduce sugar content in their products will likely accelerate this trend. Wheat consumption is expected to drop as people substitute conventional pasta and bread with alternative types of gluten-free options and legumes3.
Exhibit 3: Food demand forecast in Switzerland 2021-2035s
We also expect a gradual shift from conventional meat to meat alternatives4 as consumers increasingly accept novel food for sustainability reasons. Conventionally farmed Swiss meat will continue to play a key role in people’s diet. However, we expect that it will increasingly be seen as a premium food for special occasions.
In the current market environment, we see three major types of meat alternatives:
Plant-based meat alternatives are already widely established. They are manufactured by extracting and isolating protein from plant-based raw materials such as vegetables, legumes, grains or seeds. Yet, in many cases, these products struggle to meet consumers’ expectations regarding taste and texture. Furthermore, high processing and long ingredient lists raise reservations among health-conscious consumers.
Fermentation-based meat alternatives currently have a smaller market share than plant-based products. They are created by growing and harvesting micro-organisms such as fungi or bacteria in a controlled environment. In biomass fermentation, these organisms reproduce and turn into a protein-rich basis for the final product. In precision fermentation, organisms are programmed to efficiently produce functional ingredients such as proteins, flavor molecules or fat5. In combination with other methods, fermentation has the potential to deliver a more “meat-like” experience.
Cultivated meat is produced from animal cells, bypassing traditional animal-rearing and farming practices. Products based on this method are intended to imitate the taste and texture of conventional meat more closely than other alternatives. Yet, input costs6 are high, which currently impedes efficient scale-up of production.
Combining different methods for a superior experience
Producers have also started to combine the techniques described above to create blended products with the goal of improving taste, texture, and nutrition. Industry experts believe that plant-based meat will be enriched through fermentation or other innovative processes7 for better taste and texture. These advanced plant-based products will likely gain further traction in the coming one to two years. Hybrid versions of cultivated meat containing plant-based components are already available in small quantities in selected test markets. Currently, high input costs impede large-scale production of cultivated meat products, so further progress in product development and input manufacturing will be required to come closer to price parity with conventional meat and make cultivated meat more affordable. Regulatory approval and consumer acceptance also need to be gained to achieve full market readiness.
Market outlook
After an initial period of “hype” around plant-based meat accompanied by strong growth, demand has recently lost momentum. Industry experts expect this dip to last while the market consolidates and manufacturers continue to work on improving the taste and texture of plant-based products8. The market is expected to rebound in one to two years. Looking further into the future, our analysis suggests that R&D progress in combination with declining input prices will enable large-scale production of cultivated meat, paving the way for broad market introduction in the 2030ies (see Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4: Projected market share development of alternative and conventional meat
There is a chance that Switzerland may be among the first countries in Europe to bring cultivated meat to market, given that Europe’s first regulatory application for cultivated meat has been made in Switzerland by Israeli novel food venture Aleph Farms and a local retailer9. The applicants chose Switzerland because of its relatively straightforward application process10 and suitability as a “sandbox market” for novel food products. Yet, as experience from other test markets suggests, cultivated meat will most likely only be available in limited amounts and in selected upscale restaurants, given the challenges described above around input prices and large-scale production.
Under its Climate and Agriculture Strategy11, Switzerland has set targets of maintaining a self-sufficiency rate (SSR) of 50 percent12 while reducing total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 50 percent by 2030 compared to 1990, and to reaching net zero in 2050. As the Swiss population continues to grow, food producers will need to increase both the productivity and sustainability of their operations to meet these ambitions.
This will require a clear transformation roadmap for the country’s food-production sector, which combines conventional and innovative farming methods to meet the following four key objectives:
Swiss farmers keep a livestock of around 1.5 million cows for meat and dairy production. These animals emit methane equivalent to 4.2 million tons of CO2. One way to make cattle farming more sustainable is to reduce herd sizes over time and diversify into other types of livestock that produce fewer emissions, such as poultry or mutton. Cattle farming could then be geared toward high-quality meat and dairy for the premium market. However, cattle numbers can only be reduced to the extent that Switzerland can maintain self-sufficiency and satisfy domestic demand for conventional beef.
Another way to improve the environmental footprint of cattle farming is to reduce individual animals’ emission intensity, for instance by replacing conventional soy- or corn-based concentrated feed with a more sustainable, forage-based diet (for example grasses and legumes). Food additives, such as the red seaweed Asparagopsis or Bovaer13, deserve specific attention as they could help to significantly reduce methane emissions (see Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5: Challenges in cattle farming and possible improvement levers
The potential of Asparagopsis to reduce methane emissions Asparagopsis is a type of red seaweed that contains several active compounds which decrease methane production by cattle. Initial studies show that adding the seaweed to a cow’s diet can reduce methane emissions by 30 to 60 percent14 (see Exhibit 6). Under the assumption that 60 percent of Swiss cattle receive Asparagopsis as part of their diet, 30 percent of livestock GHG emissions (around 4 million tons a year in 2022) could be abated. Yet, at 380 CHF per cow a year, costs are high relative to average annual expenses for conventional cattle feed of 750-1’500 CHF15. Therefore, prices for Asparagopsis would need to drop significantly to enable broad adoption. Furthermore, production will need to scale up and the long-term impact on cattle and humans needs to be investigated to ensure the safety of the food additive.
Exhibit 6: Illustrative benefit/ cost analysis for Asparagopsis
When it comes to fruit and vegetable farming, productivity and sustainability are under pressure from poor soil health caused by extensive tillage, (over-)use of fertilizer and pesticides. In Switzerland, around 40 percent of the soil is estimated to be degraded in this way. Besides environmental damage, this also reduces crop yields16.
Fruit and vegetable farmers are also feeling the impact of climate change, with more frequent extreme weather events and droughts reducing output (see Exhibit 7). Agri-technology such as precision farming and regenerative techniques can help to address these challenges. In addition, cross-breeding and proven gene editing methods such as CRISPR17, can make crops more resilient and broaden the variety of plants that thrive under local climate conditions. This would not only improve soil health, but also help farmers grow and diversify their business, for instance by cultivating new types of cash crops.
Exhibit 7: Challenges in conventional vegetable and fruit farming and possible improvement levers
Making ends meet
Besides sustainability considerations, farmers must also ensure the profitability of their business. Diversification of revenue streams, for instance from rearing animals with lower emissions compared to cattle or cultivating selected cash crops, has the potential to strengthen their sources of income18.
With this in mind, some farmers have taken an entrepreneurial approach and ventured into the tourism and hospitality business19. Others are moving down the value chain and sell their products directly to local restaurants, retailers or food processors, avoiding intermediaries and increasing their own margins.
Farmers who view themselves as entrepreneurs and their farms as small- or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), but lack the necessary business know-how, should get access to advanced training courses provided by industry associations or other institutions.
The government can also help to lower the cost burden of the sustainability transition with targeted incentives such as direct payments for technology investments or cost-sharing models for methane-reducing food additives. Retailers, on their side, could offer support through prominent shelf placement and promotion of certified sustainably produced agricultural products, or by adjusting their margin structures in favor of sustainable food.
Given that farmers make considerable investments to meet certification standards, retailers could align their labeling and underlying sustainability requirements so that farmers can sell their products to different companies using the same labels. This would reduce “lock-in” effects with specific retailers and strengthen farmers’ confidence that their sustainability investments will pay off in the long term.
In the area of dairy products, diverging views about what constitutes a “fair” price for milk has been a controversial subject between farmers and dairy manufacturers over recent years. Although initiatives that reward sustainable milk production with a higher price20 have brought some relief, a long-term compromise will likely require compromise from both sides. However, to ensure the competitiveness of Swiss products and maintain incentives for farmers to increase productivity, regulators should make sure that such a solution does not undermine market mechanisms.
The role of controlled environment farming in the future Swiss food ecosystem
In recent years, controlled environment farms (CEFs) have spread in densely populated cities such as Singapore or very dry regions such as the Middle East. They are typically used to grow leafy vegetables or tomatoes in an environment that allows for precise control over factors such as light, temperature and humidity. These indoor farms operate with minimal use of fertilizer, chemicals, or water, and prevent soil degradation.
Start-ups have successfully established the concept in Switzerland. Yet, given the fact that CEFs are expensive to build and run, we expect that these indoor farms will play a relatively minor role in the future Swiss food ecosystem. CEFs could help provide a local year-round supply of selected greens and herbs, for example, and some of the technologies applied in CEF could help improve productivity in the field. Indoor farming ventures should therefore collaborate with conventional farmers to facilitate knowledge transfer and adaptation of resource-efficient farming methods on their fields.
As a landlocked country, Switzerland has to import more than 95 percent of fish and seafood consumed by its population. New technologies promise to improve the situation. One example are recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), which allow for cultivation of saltwater as well as freshwater fish, and could enable Switzerland to increase self-sufficiency in fish and seafood (see Exhibit 8).
These farms operate in an indoor circular environment that simulates the animals’ natural lifecycle from juvenile to fully-grown fish. RAS is more sustainable than conventional fish farming because there is no or very limited need for chemicals or antibiotics, which makes the fish healthier for consumers, too. It avoids overfishing of oceans, and the circular nature of the process means less water is needed. Several RAS farms, such as Swiss Lachs in the Graubünden Alps, have been established in recent years, producing around one kiloton (kt) of fish in addition to the country’s conventional fish-farming capacity21. Projections and industry estimates indicate that this could increase to around six kt a year by 2035, raising Switzerland’s self-sufficiency rate from three percent today to eight percent.
Exhibit 8: RAS concept and projected impact on domestic fish production
However, there are also significant challenges: Production costs are high22 and RAS companies need experienced staff to operate the complex technology. This means the fish produced domestically is more expensive than imports, which are not subject to protective tariffs unlike, for instance, agricultural products23. For example, we find imported salmon to be ten to 30 percent cheaper than its domestic equivalent (depending on whether the fish is organic or not)24. As there is no clear certification explaining the health and environmental benefits of local fish, many consumers may not understand why they should pay a premium for salmon “made in Switzerland.”
To address these issues, regulators should define standards and clear labels for locally produced, sustainable and antibiotic-free fish. Retailers could promote Swiss fish by ensuring premium shelf space and displaying the product as local and sustainable. RAS ventures aiming to scale up could benefit from improved access to private capital and targeted government incentives to increase productivity and the competitiveness of their products.
Industry experts expect that novel food such as plant-based dairy or cultivated meat will play an increasing role in feeding the world. These products can be manufactured with fewer natural resources and emissions compared to traditional methods. They may also offer health benefits for consumers due to no or lower use of pesticides, antibiotics, as well as other chemicals, and can be designed with a higher nutritional density. Like other nascent technologies, novel food ventures face several challenges including high input prices and energy consumption. In many cases, significant R&D and investment will be required to enable profitable scale-up of production. The question also remains whether consumers will accept food from the laboratory as part of their usual diet.
Yet, Swiss consumers appear generally open to novel food – 60 percent of respondents to our survey indicated that they eat alternative protein at least once a week25. The successful establishment of several start-ups in the space also offers evidence that Switzerland’s emerging novel food ecosystem has strong potential to expand in breadth and depth and strengthen the country’s position as one of the world’s most innovative nations26.
Having received Europe’s first regulatory application for cultivated meat (see alternative meat deep dive), Switzerland is well placed to become a key European “sandbox” market and driver of novel food adoption. To raise the country’s attractiveness for novel food companies and grow a sustainable and innovative food sector, several priorities should be addressed. Among others, these include unconstrained access to international university co-operation and funding schemes, and broader access to venture and growth capital (see Exhibit 9).
Exhibit 9: From lab to fork: The emerging Swiss novel food ecosystem
Currently, Switzerland produces the equivalent of 460 kg of gross food waste per person each year. Producers and processors account for over 60 percent. Here, new technologies such as precision farming have considerable potential to reduce food loss. Consumers, which are responsible for another ca. 30 percent, should act as well27. Several measures are already in place by producers, retailers and consumers to curtail loss and waste through repurposing and recycling28, by which roughly 25 percent of gross waste can be prevented. Yet, the fact that there is still 330 kg of net waste29 per capita suggests there is a great deal of further potential to make the system more circular and sustainable.
A country-wide and easily accessible recycling infrastructure, combined with targeted incentives to encourage food waste recycling, could reduce food waste on the consumer side. South Korea, which is often referred to as an example of best practice, managed to raise its recycling quota from two percent in 1995 to 100 percent today thanks to a dense network of easily accessible “smart recycling bins” and an effective scheme to encourage home composting and reduce food waste to a minimum30. Switzerland is intensifying the battle against food waste as well. Latest action plans aim to bring together stakeholders such as farmers and retailers to optimize quality standards and farming planning through digital tools, all in pursuit of establishing a circular and waste-reducing food ecosystem31.
Exhibit 10 illustrates how each participant in the Swiss farm-to-fork value chain can contribute to a circular and more sustainable food ecosystem:
Exhibit 10: Key levers to achieve a circular farm-to-fork value chain
As the four objectives discussed in this section and the related challenges indicate, making the Swiss food-production sector more sustainable and productive is no easy task. Nonetheless, we are confident that by implementing the identified actions and fostering collaboration among producers, retailers and other stakeholders, Switzerland will be able meet the ambitious goals of its Climate and Agriculture Strategy.
Ensuring a sustainable and resilient import supply has become increasingly challenging for countries worldwide. Switzerland has accomplished maintaining a steady inflow of high-quality produce, even during the pandemic. However, in the long term, the country’s relatively high reliance on imports raises questions around future resilience, sustainability and affordability in a world increasingly exposed to climate change and global supply disruptions. Here, we will consider how the related challenges can be addressed.
Overall, Switzerland achieves a gross self-sufficiency rate (SSR) of 50-60 percent32. Thanks to the large agricultural sector, this figure raises to an average of 80 percent for key agricultural products. However, SSR varies widely across product categories (see Exhibit 11). Demand for red meat and dairy, for instance, can mostly be met by domestic farmers
Exhibit 11: Peer benchmarking self-sufficiency (gross self-sufficiency perspective)
Some of these dependencies may also raise questions around sustainability. A large share of poultry imports, for instance, originates from Brazil, where poultry farming has been associated with Amazon deforestation. Overfishing and unsustainable fish-farming methods in some countries also increase the environmental footprint of imported fish and seafood.
From a resilience perspective, fruit and vegetables pose the greatest risk as the local harvest depends on weather conditions and varies season by season. Self-sufficiency rates have fluctuated between 28 percent and 40 percent in the past, meaning that at times 70 percent of these products must be imported. In addition, 50 percent of the imports originate from two southern European countries that are increasingly affected by climate change and extreme weather events, such as droughts or floods. The results are lower yields and potential future shortages, putting Switzerland’s supply of fresh produce at risk (see Exhibit 12).
Exhibit 12: Import dependencies for key agricultural products
The risk is amplified by the fact that other northern European nations also rely heavily on the same countries, meaning that climate change-induced crop failures in southern Europe could lead to larger-scale supply disruption affecting multiple countries simultaneously. Countries and importers that have taken adequate measures to build resilient supply chains will likely be able to ensure continuous supply and may enjoy a competitive advantage.
Ensuring a stable supply of fruits and vegetables might become a major challenge for Switzerland and other European countries in the years to come. This raises the need for Swiss stakeholders to act and ensure continuous supply of fresh produce. Here, we are looking at short-term disruption, triggered by unforeseen events ("shocks") as well as long-term supply shortages caused by ongoing trends such as climate change. We identified measures that private companies and public bodies can put in place to address these challenges and make import supply chains more resilient.
Securing a continuous and reliable import supply is not the only challenge Switzerland faces in relation to cross-border food trade. As the Global Food Security index discussed earlier shows, food affordability is also a main issue. This is partially related to the high import tariffs on agricultural products during harvest season. These protect farmers from comparatively cheap imports, allowing them to push through higher prices in the Swiss market. During the "off-season" part of the year, tariffs are relaxed to ensure sufficient supply of fresh fruits and vegetables. On the one hand, these measures can be partially justified by high quality standards and labor costs in Switzerland34. They strengthen the domestic food-production sector and help Switzerland to maintain its self-sufficiency and supply security. On the other hand, tariffs also affect the affordability of food. For some fresh food, tariffs can increase the price of foreign products to an extent that they can barely compete with their Swiss equivalent35. Consumers bear the burden – based on external studies, food import tariffs are estimated to add an extra 1,000 CHF a year to the food bills of Swiss households (a total of three billion CHF p.a.36) and can encourage “grocery tourism” in border regions37.
While Switzerland recently abolished industry tariffs, with an expected positive impact on the economy38, agricultural tariffs persist. It may be time for the government, agricultural associations, and consumer representatives to assess the current regime’s macroeconomic impact and consider targeted adjustments to lower consumer prices and increase the competitiveness of Swiss products. At the same time, adequate protection of the agricultural sector is in the public interest and needs to be be ensured. Finding the right balance may be a challenge. Stakeholders should therefore quantify various scenarios, jointly agree on the most viable solution, and address potential adverse effects with dedicated measures.
As our analysis in this chapter suggests, imports will remain an important lever to meet Switzerland’s future food demand. In combination, the measures outlined above can help to secure a steady inflow of fresh food products and make the country’s food supply more resilient, sustainable and affordable for consumers.
Illustrative case study
Alongside boosting domestic production and assuring food imports, the final element in creating a more sustainable Swiss food ecosystem is securing the buy-in of consumers themselves. As our survey mentioned before shows, Swiss consumers increasingly value local, sustainable, and healthy food and appear willing to pay more for it. So how can the country harness this goodwill to make further progress?
Education, transparency and incentives will all have a role to play, and we believe the following six levers will be most effective:
Inform people about the environmental and social impact of food production (for example emissions, soil degradation, and social justice issues39).
Ensure that healthy and sustainable products are affordable, widely available across the country, and accessible to all demographic groups. Promote local and community-based food ecosystems, such as farmer-to-consumer initiatives and community gardens.
Producers, retailers and regulators must ensure understandable labels and certificates, making clear if a product is free from antibiotics and chemicals, produced in line with organic industry standards or reared in a way that benefits animal well-being. Retailers could also indicate the “full price” of a product, which considers externalities40 such as carbon footprint, to inform consumers about the full environmental impact of their consumption habits. Data-based technologies could be applied to offer personalized recommendations based on shoppers’ taste, willingness to pay and sustainability priorities.
To steer consumers’ behavior toward more sustainable products, producers and retailers could offer incentives such as price discounts or loyalty programs for buying these products. They could also go one step further and charge a product’s "full price" instead of merely indicating it, making sustainable products more attractive than less sustainable alternatives.
Reducing bulk offers such as “buy three, get one free” could help to prevent over-buying, especially on fresh and perishable foods. Technology can also support better-informed decision-making, for example through smart fridges telling people what products are running low.
Packaging recycling has become a way of life in Switzerland and other European countries, but when it comes to biodegradable food waste, there is still room for improvement. A country-wide, accessible recycling infrastructure paired with monetary and non-monetary rewards can be used to incentivize consumers to recycle food waste.
Regulators, educational institutions, and the food sector need to work hand in hand to address these levers and encourage consumers to contribute their fair share to improve the Swiss food ecosystem.
Closing the gap between today’s food supply and the amount of food needed to feed Switzerland’s future population will require all the levers we have described in this article (see Exhibit 15).
Exhibit 15: Levers towards a secure and sustainable food supply by 2035
To pave the way for an effective transformation of the Swiss food ecosystem, private and public decision-makers should consider the following key success factors:
Ensuring a healthy, sustainable, secure, and affordable food supply for a growing population will challenge the Swiss food ecosystem in the years to come. To succeed, private and public stakeholders need to pursue a common strategic plan that addresses the priorities of all ecosystem participants and offers sensible compromises in areas where interests collide. Switzerland can count on the strengths of its direct democratic system and federal structures, a deeply rooted culture of open debate, and its strong innovative power. Yet, dedicated leadership and coordinated efforts will be equally important to ensure effective implementation of the strategic agenda.
The analyses and recommendations provided in this article can empower decision-makers to assess how they can contribute to the upcoming transformation and define their targets and concrete actions. Furthermore, our publication aims to raise awareness among Swiss consumers of key food security and sustainability challenges and possible ways to address them, enabling an informed public debate.
We would like to thank Alain Oberhuber for his expert insights on alternative protein and Lucie Hibon, Marc Läuchli, Lukas Lehmann, Julia Lorey and Elaine Xie for their contributions to the article. We would also like to express our sincere gratitude to Swisscofel, the Schweizer Bauernverband, FTN Aquart, Swiss Lachs and all other contributors for their valuable input and feedback.