Digital Auto Report 2018 - The future is here: flexible carmakers must balance metal and mobility

01 October, 2018

Executive summary

The seventh annual Digital Auto Report is a global study with a focus on the U.S., Europe, and China. A quantitative market outlook based on detailed research and interviews with key industry executives reveal that the mobility revolution is dawning and OEMs must stake their claim.

The market for shared on-demand vehicles (Mobility as a Service/MaaS) in the U.S., the E.U. and China will be worth $1.4 trillion by 2030
The U.S. MaaS market will be worth $250bn by 2025, compared with $47bn in 2017, but it will be clearly overtaken by China by 2030
Profitable mobility services will compensate for declining vehicle sales: MaaS will account for 22% of automotive industry revenue by 2030, and 30% of profits, compared with 38% of revenue and 26% of profits for new car sales
Millennials make up >50% of the global population – they expect their mobility experience to be personal, seamlessly integrated, multi-modal and on-demand. 47% of European and 79% of Chinese consumers would consider giving up their own cars once competitively priced robotaxis are available

100% of new cars will be connected by ~2022 and the first L4 autonomous vehicles will be used for specific use cases from 2021
However, policy rather than technology will drive the pace of change:
- Governments have much to lose in the West (from fuel taxes and manufacturing jobs to transportation system control) and lots to win in the East (reduction of smog, battery technology leadership)
- Autonomous regulation is most favorable in the U.S., with the E.U. following slowly, because of different legal frameworks in member states
Local bans on combustion engines in large cities, tax breaks and mandatory electric vehicle quotas push the transition to electric driving. Electric vehicles remain in the minority up to 2030, when they reach 50% in China, 44% in the E.U. and 20% in the U.S.