Digital Auto Report 2022

For car manufacturers, value creation in mobility is growing beyond the vehicle with components and connected services to mobility and transportation services on the one side and mobility infrastructure provisioning on the other side – for each direction a distinct view is needed to define a winning strategy.

• Today‘s connected services improve vehicle experience along safety, convenience, entertainment and infrastructure. OEMs apply different bundling approaches with German players providing a large number of individual services at 19-880 EUR p.a., while new US/Chinese players offer fewer packs at higher prices
• Capturing value with digital services remains challenging as other industry sectors (media, retail, etc.) fight for the same customer wallet. The total market in Europe, US and China is estimated at 66bn USD in 2035. Vehicle features on demand create additional service revenue opportunities – but partly at the cost of vehicle sales
  
• Zooming into vehicle components, electric powertrains and batteries show substantial growth potential. In 2035, the market is expected at 238bn USD in Europe – vs. 128bn USD in the US and 314bn USD in China
• In the context of automated driving, even the largest players are forming partnerships along the value chain. First regular robotaxi operations are expected in Europe early 2023, but scale-up will take another 5 years
• With cost per robotaxi kilometer below 1 EUR by 2030, a tipping point with attractive consumer prices is reached in that year. As a result, robotaxi service revenues in large cities are expected to grow from 31bn EUR in 2030 to 400bn EUR in 2035. OEM revenues for selling robotaxis vehicles expected at one fourth of that market (103bn EUR)
• In the third value pool centering around infrastructure, the EV charging market has substantial growth potential. In Europe alone, the market is expected to grow from 4.5bn EUR in 2021 to 75.5bn EUR in 2035.

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Annual robotaxi vehicle sales in a large cities scenario in million units

Based on 17 relevant use cases in large cities and respective demand, we estimate 2.4mn robotaxis to be sold p.a. by 2035. The costs per robotaxi and price-per-km will fall over the time as the cost of vehicles, autonomous driving technology, and related services will decline as well. We also assume that robotaxis will replace existing cabs in case the technology becomes more robust and the vehicles is able to operate in bad weather without any restrictions.