71% of trucks produced worldwide will be sold in emerging countries by 2020

London, September 25, 2014 — Global management consultancy Strategy&, part of the PwC network of firms, has today released a major study looking at the future of the global trucking industry. “The Truck Industry 2020 – How to move in moving markets” report highlights that while overall the global trucking industry continues to grow - by 2020, the number of vehicles sold will increase annually by 3.7%, from 2.8 million in 2013 to 3.6 million in 2020 – it is the emerging markets that are driving the biggest share of demand.

In 2006, 27% of all trucks produced worldwide were still sold in NAFTA (i.e. in Mexico, the USA and Canada), this share had contracted by 2013 to 15%. The same goes for the markets in Western and Central Europe, whose 17% share in 2006 fell to 11% in 2013. Similarly, the industrialized regions of East Asia (Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) accounted for 6% of sales in 2006, but only 4% of all newly-manufactured trucks last year. Accordingly, the collective market share of what is referred to as the “Triad” – the world’s three biggest economic areas (NAFTA, the EU and industrialized East Asia) – was just 30% in 2013.

Set against this, in recent years the BRIC countries have been the major growth markets. They now account for 55% of newly-manufactured truck sales. Other small markets, such as Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa, account for a total of 15% of all trucks. Following the recent years of change, the regional configuration of markets and sales is set to remain largely stable through to at least 2020. The only relevant change is that the ‘other markets’ are set to expand their market share in trucks sold by 3 percentage points, to 18%, by 2020, at the expense of the BRIC countries and the East Asian industrialized countries.

Jens Nackmayr, a partner and automotive expert at Strategy& London, notes: “Even the future development does not play entirely into the hands of producers from the industrialized nations. For instance, this study shows that both in the BRIC countries and in the future markets in other emerging countries, there is little market share to be gained for manufacturers via premium functions, driver comforts and design. Here, above all, what counts is price and robust design.

He adds: “Truck OEMs in the industrialized countries need to respond quickly: the market share for premium trucks, which is where they can exploit their own core competences to the full, has contracted in recent years and there is no improvement in sight. In the future markets in the emerging countries, it is other qualities that count: there, trucks need above all to be cheap and able to cope with rough treatment – which is a particular strength of Chinese and Indian manufacturers.”

Fredrik Vernersson, co-author of the study and Senior Executive Advisor at Strategy&, sums up: “The race for pole position in the emerging markets for trucks is in full swing. You have highly-developed premium vehicles and excellent global networking at the forefront on one side, and on the other cost-favourable ‘workhorses’ that are well-suited to the market. Over the long term, the successful providers will be those who match their products clearly to the respective market requirements: low-budget trucks for the emerging countries, premium trucks for the industrialized nations, and alongside that a broad international footing.”

About Strategy&

Strategy& is a global team of practical strategists committed to helping you seize essential advantage. We do that by working alongside you to solve your toughest problems and helping you capture your greatest opportunities. We bring 100 years of strategy consulting experience and the unrivaled industry and functional capabilities of the PwC network to the task. We are part of the PwC network of firms in 157 countries with more than 223,000 people committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax, and advisory services.

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